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Prompted from a post at O’Reilly blogs, discussing the upcoming regional wars between social networks:

Actually, the more probable scenario is that (closed) social networks become less important over the long term. With more web applications incorporating social features, users will gradually “leave” closed social networks altogether. Already, I know less and less people who use Facebook regularly. Most people I know log in only when they receive a “friend” request - sadly hugs, gifts, zombies and pokes are losing their allure.

I have to say I can’t agree more. The gist of the post is that leader social networks — Myspace, Facebook, Hi5, Bebo, LJ and Friendster — have grown what they could in their respective main markets. What follows is competition to dethrone regionally incumbent social networks, probably leading to data portability.

However, walled gardens have a lot to gain from being walled. Tearing down walls is contrary to their beliefs and will be a slow process. It is much more natural that a new type of social network appears. One more classical-internet-like: distributed, standardized on common protocols and open. The market is there — users already know and like the concept of social networks — and there is a lot to gain from openness.